Saturday, January 10, 2004

Wired News: Predicting the Next Big One

Wired News has this article that says scientists are getting closer to being able to predict earthquakes in a region. The article points to recent success in predicting quakes including the 6.5 quake in central California last month. From the article:
Seismologists may soon have the ability to predict earthquakes several months in advance, say a team of researchers at the University of California at Los Angeles. The group announced Tuesday that it had used a newly developed technique to closely forecast major earthquakes in California and Japan last year, including the magnitude 6.5 tremor that struck Paso Robles, California, in December, and the magnitude 8.3 quake near Hokkaido, Japan, in September.
While I can see how this level of prediction will prove to be very useful and may save lives, I'm curious how the information will be used. I've only been in California for about 5 years, now, but if I have learned anything from my time here it's that earthquake retrofit projects take a long time to complete. Generally projects started on the first day of these nine month predictions would not be complete by the time a quake hits, so the warnings aren't early enough to help us there. People can't leave their homes for nine months waiting on an earthquake, so how does this really help? It will make people aware that a quake is coming and they can get their kits in order. People can prepare themselves for the upcoming quake, but not escape from it.

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